| Molybdenum plays a more vital role in the | | | | financial climates. The largest number |
| global nuclear renaissance than you might | | | | proceeding through the proposed, planned or |
| suspect. Without the silvery white metal, | | | | construction phases will be located along |
| the world's energy infrastructure would | | | | coastal areas to service the most populated |
| somewhat suffer. But, nuclear power plants | | | | areas. The greatest numbers of new |
| would be set back at least two decades. The | | | | constructions are expected from China, India, |
| new high performance stainless steels (HPSS) | | | | Japan, Russia, South Korea and Japan (and |
| contain as much as 7.5 percent molybdenum and | | | | possibly the United States). |
| can add more than three times the life to the | | | | |
| world's aging nuclear fleet condenser tubes. | | | | Existing reactors along coastal areas in |
| | | | Asian countries presently breaks down as |
| During the early construction of nuclear | | | | follows: Japan (57), South Korea (26), China |
| power plants, steam condensers relied upon | | | | and Taiwan (19) and India (11). Because these |
| copper base alloys - brass and copper nickel | | | | are the most prone to seawater or brackish |
| - for heat transfer capabilities. These | | | | corrosion, they are also the likely |
| alloys have high coefficients of thermal | | | | candidates for upgrading existing condenser |
| conductivity required in steam generation to | | | | tubing to high alloy stainless steel. And |
| power nuclear reactor turbines. But | | | | their new reactors are likely going to be |
| copper-alloyed tubes were being replaced too | | | | constructed along their coasts, requiring the |
| quickly - with an average life of eight years | | | | super austenitic grades. As an aside, of the |
| - because of sulphide pitting. Hardest hit | | | | previously mentioned 190 nuclear power plants |
| were those reactors using polluted seawater | | | | which had replaced their condensers with |
| to cool their reactors. | | | | HPSS, 45 percent used fresh water as coolant. |
| | | | Those plants chose the high alloy steel as a |
| Over the past 30 years ago, nuclear utilities | | | | 'fail-safe' measure to prevent interrupted |
| slowly began turning to the super austenitic | | | | service or a potential reactor incident. |
| stainless steels as one way to make their | | | | |
| nuclear reactors last longer. The addition of | | | | The United Nations estimates that two-thirds |
| molybdenum, initially starting with | | | | of the planet's population will be living |
| percentage of less than four percent, helped | | | | with water stress by 2025. Global freshwater |
| increase the thermal conductivity lacking in | | | | scarcity may demand the use of brackish or |
| nickel, iron or steel. At nuclear stations | | | | seawater as nuclear reactor coolant. To |
| which replaced the copper alloys with HPSS | | | | prevent the accompanying corrosion, the |
| condenser tubes, 57 percent rated the thermal | | | | higher-percentage molybdenum alloy, |
| performance good and all but one rated it | | | | specifically the 654 SMOÂ(R), could |
| normal. Molybdenum had helped overcome the | | | | emerge as the condenser tubing material of |
| thermal hurdle. | | | | choice. Either the 254 SMOÂ(R) or the 654 |
| | | | would be utilized in desalination plants |
| A large number of the 190 nuclear reactors, | | | | required to overcome water shortages in the |
| which now utilize HPSS condenser tubes, | | | | hardest hit areas: North Africa, the Middle |
| reported an average life in excess of 18 | | | | East and West Asia. |
| years. The longest stainless steel condenser | | | | |
| installation has remained in service more | | | | Typically, nuclear power plant condenser |
| than 26 years, according to a study done | | | | tubing requires approximately 520,000 feet of |
| several years ago. According to a report | | | | stainless steel. According to the |
| published in 2000, more than 100 million feet | | | | International Molybdenum Association (IMOA), |
| of super-alloy stainless steel tubes have | | | | larger reactors could utilize up to one |
| replaced the older, copper-alloy tubing. | | | | million feet of stainless steel. With the |
| | | | higher molybdenum grades found in the super |
| Condensers are large heat exchangers used in | | | | alloys, new nuclear reactors could require |
| nuclear power plants. Condensers have | | | | tens of thousands of metric tons of |
| thousands of tubes horizontally mounted to | | | | molybdenum. |
| condense and recover the steam passing | | | | |
| through turbines. Each low-pressure turbine | | | | By comparison, nuclear waste containers |
| generally has a condenser, which also | | | | proposed for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste |
| maintains a vacuum to optimize the turbine's | | | | repository were forecast to consume about |
| efficiency. | | | | 15,000 metric tons of moly. While this |
| | | | project may or may not proceed as planned to |
| Water fouling deposits were cited as a major | | | | the construction phase, the Nuclear Energy |
| problem at many reactors, especially with | | | | Institute (NEI) has proposed regionalized |
| condenser tubes where seawater or | | | | storage of spent fuel. |
| high-chloride brackish water was the coolant. | | | | |
| Pitting corrosion, tube sheet crevice | | | | Should comparably designed storage canisters |
| corrosion and galvanic corrosion put the | | | | be utilized to 'temporarily' contain the |
| tubes at risk for leakage. Plugging, mud, or | | | | nuclear waste, it is likely molybdenum will |
| detritus accumulating in condenser tubes | | | | play a key role. According to the U.S. |
| reduce a power plant's efficiency. | | | | Government's Energy Citation Database, as |
| | | | published by the Department of Energy's |
| Utilities use cleaning systems with small, | | | | Office of Scientific and Technical |
| abrasive sponge-like balls to keep the tubes | | | | Information, "Alloys with combined chromium |
| clean and test for tube defectives with | | | | plus molybdenum contents greater than 30 |
| probing devices. Tube thinning and corrosion | | | | percent were the most resistant to general |
| create the opportunity for tube leakage. This | | | | and local attack." This was the conclusion |
| can not be tolerated because chemicals such | | | | reached after corrosion scouring tests were |
| as sodium and chlorides find their way into | | | | performed on stainless steel and nickel-based |
| the reactor vessel or steam generator. | | | | alloys to immobilize high-level, radioactive |
| | | | waste. Another aspect where |
| Upgrading the steam condenser tubing to | | | | high-percentage molybdenum stainless steel |
| stainless steel also plays a vital role in | | | | would double up is with the expansion of |
| the 'power uprate' program utilities have | | | | nuclear desalination plants. In the past, and |
| used to increase generating capacity for | | | | in our publication, "Investing in the Great |
| existing reactors as we recently discussed. | | | | Uranium Bull Market," we have discussed the |
| The more advanced uprate program could add up | | | | rise of nuclear desalination across those |
| to 20-percent capacity to existing U.S. | | | | coastal areas, requiring far more freshwater |
| nuclear reactors. | | | | than can possibly be transported through |
| | | | other means. The World Nuclear Association |
| Different Molybdenum Alloys | | | | (WNA) has reported of numerous such |
| | | | desalination projects in progress. |
| There are several HPSS manufacturers for | | | | |
| nuclear reactor condensers. The most | | | | Will The Energy Bull Have Sufficient Moly? |
| prominent in the nuclear sector include | | | | |
| Pennsylvania-based ATI Allegheny Ludlum and | | | | From nearly every energy project - oil, gas, |
| Finland's Outokumpu. Each offers austenitic | | | | coal and nuclear, and for water, molybdenum |
| steels with chromium and nickel composition | | | | demand will continue increasing. Super |
| of between 20 and 25 percent for each alloy | | | | austenitic grades demand a higher moly |
| and a range of 6.2 to 7.5 percent molybdenum. | | | | content to combat corrosion and provide |
| | | | reliability of service. Of course, there will |
| In a paper presented by Jan Olsson of Avesta | | | | be substitution in the face of future supply |
| Sheffield (before the company was acquired by | | | | shortfalls. In some instances, there are |
| Outokumpu), he highlighted the results of | | | | reports the Russians have substituted |
| tests performed on the new super-austenitic | | | | vanadium for molybdenum in some of their oil |
| stainless steel, 654 SMOÂ(R). Metals | | | | and gas pipelines to conserve on moly |
| comprising this brand include 25-percent | | | | consumption. ATI Allegheny Ludlum has argued |
| chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent | | | | for the substitution of two-percent manganese |
| molybdenum. To increase pitting resistance, | | | | for every percent of nickel, but in the lower |
| the manufacturers added up to 0.5-percent | | | | grade austenitic groups which do not demand |
| nitrogen and three-percent manganese (for | | | | the corrosion resistance of energy projects. |
| make the nitrogen more soluble). | | | | While reviewing the anticipated new projects |
| | | | from the molybdenum mining sector, we foresee |
| As with all pioneering developments - and | | | | the high probability of supply inadequacy. |
| remember that R & D breakthroughs have taken | | | | Aside from China Moly's Sandaozhuang |
| place over a two-decade-plus period, | | | | molybdenum mine, which the company hopes |
| manufacturers have re-designed their | | | | could produce 28,000 tonnes of molybdenum |
| metallurgical composition to find the most | | | | concentrate this year and perhaps grow by |
| encouraging percentages of nickel, chromium, | | | | another 17 percent the following year, there |
| molybdenum and nitrogen. The earlier | | | | is a paucity of new molybdenum projects |
| stainless steels relied on higher nickel | | | | coming fully online before 2009. |
| content and lesser percentages of chromium | | | | |
| and molybdenum. | | | | Based upon China's voracious appetite for |
| | | | molybdenum - one research firm estimated |
| At first, conventional austenitic grades, | | | | compounded annual growth rate over the |
| such as 316L, or high chromium-ferritic | | | | previous five years at 17 percent, whatever |
| grades, were utilized. Pitting struck down | | | | excess moly production comes from China |
| widespread use of the 316L series and was | | | | Moly's mining efforts could very well be |
| replaced by higher alloy steels. For example, | | | | domestically consumed. |
| others, such as the 254 SMOÂ(R) stainless | | | | |
| steel, began aggressively replacing the | | | | Future North American molybdenum producers |
| copper alloy tubes and in some cases the 316L | | | | may need to ramp up their projects to meet |
| series. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent | | | | the growing demand. During 2006, demand grew |
| chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent | | | | above the historical norm of four percent; |
| molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen. It has | | | | most of the consumption came from China. This |
| also offered a high level of corrosion | | | | is unlikely to stagnate or decrease, and |
| resistance at desalination plants without | | | | could interfere with North American and |
| becoming cost-prohibitive. | | | | European consumption of molybdenum. |
| | | | |
| The most significant breakthrough came after | | | | Only one company is scheduled to commence |
| various stainless steels were tested at | | | | molybdenum mining in 2007, Roca Mines. |
| Scandinavian coastal reactors. In the Avesta | | | | Because the company is limited to a |
| paper, the failures of each lesser austenitic | | | | small-mining permit, anticipated production |
| grade were checked off. Significant | | | | could not exceed three million pounds. By |
| deficiencies included insufficient stress | | | | late 2008, or early 2009, Adanac Molybdenum |
| corrosion cracking resistance and resistance | | | | hopes to commence its start-up efforts to |
| to natural seawater. Even titanium tubing was | | | | reach eight-figure moly production. Later, |
| used as an interim measure because it | | | | Blue Pearl Mining hopes to commence |
| increased total heat transfer by 17 percent, | | | | high-grade molybdenum mining at the Davidson |
| but the metal failed to stand up to high | | | | deposit in British Columbia. Around this |
| velocity steam and suffered 'water droplet | | | | time, the Climax molybdenum mine could |
| erosion.' | | | | re-open and begin production in Colorado. |
| | | | Moly Mines hopes to begin production at the |
| According to the study, "The only alloy fully | | | | company's Spinifex project. Possibly, before |
| resistant to all test conditions was 654 | | | | the decade ends, Idaho General might commence |
| SMOÂ(R)." The results at nuclear power | | | | operations in Nevada. Perhaps before those 48 |
| plants in Finland and Sweden, along the | | | | nuclear reactors come online, US Energy's Mt. |
| Baltic Sea, were astonishing! Four important | | | | Emmons deposit may be mined in Colorado. |
| conclusions about this super alloy were | | | | |
| reached after the testing. | | | | Many of these projects are subject to |
| | | | environmental permitting and/or financing, |
| · Its corrosion resistance could cope | | | | putting any material amount of forecasted |
| with the hostile environments existing inside | | | | supply in jeopardy. And this comes at a time |
| condenser tubes of desalination plants and | | | | when some experts believe byproduct |
| power plants. | | | | molybdenum production at copper mines could |
| | | | be constrained. There are many conditional |
| · Its corrosion resistance was good | | | | requirements which do not necessarily |
| enough to cop with many other hostile brine | | | | guarantee a reliable supply from the new |
| and seawater environments. | | | | breed of primary moly producers. We have |
| | | | witnessed comparable obstacles in the uranium |
| · Its erosion resistance was | | | | sector, which has since been accompanied by a |
| advantageous where it was exposed to high | | | | hyperbolic price rally in this metal. |
| velocity streams. | | | | |
| | | | There could come a point in the molybdenum |
| · There was no concern about its heat | | | | sector where the silvery white metal could |
| transfer characteristics. | | | | mimic such a breakout scenario. Nearly three |
| | | | years ago, featured a forecast of US$100 |
| Nuclear Consumption of Molybdenum | | | | pound uranium. No one believed that |
| | | | prediction at the time. On Friday, TradeTech |
| About 48 nuclear reactors are reportedly | | | | announced a spot price of US$113/pound. |
| scheduled for construction by 2013. It may be | | | | |
| possible that up to 100 could be constructed | | | | COPYRIGHT© 2007 by StockInterview, |
| by 2020, depending upon political and | | | | Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. |